🤏 From Full-Size To Fun-Size
In 1973, a woman named Betty Morris discovered that plastic container lids could shrink down to one-third of it's original size when placed in the oven. This invention would become the Shrinky Dink, a toy that reached its height of popularity in the 80's. In the last two years, we have witnessed manufacturers and retailers put packaged goods in the Shrinky Dink to increase operating margin and profitability. The size of products have decreased while prices have remained the same or increased. Some have stayed a little *too* long in the oven and consumers have taken notice.
🔍 Here are some cases of beauty shrinkflation:
(Shrinkage since 2022, based on retail sites, historical purchases, product reviews, social conversation and community forums)
Milk Lip & Cheek Blush Stick
2022 - 1oz, $24
2024 - .21 oz, $24
↙️Shrinkage: 79%
Laura Mercier Pure Canvas Primer
2022 - 50ml, $46
2024 - 30ml, $46
↙️Shrinkage: 40%
NARS Afterglow Liquid Blush
2022 - .50oz, $32
2024- .23oz, $32
↙️Shrinkage: 54%
Haus Labs Blush
2022 - 0.42 oz, $38,
2024 - .18oz, $38
↙️Shrinkage: 57%
Tarte Amazonian Clay Blushes
2022 - 5.4g, $30
2024 - 3.6g, $30
↙️Shrinkage: 33%
Glossier Glassy High Shine Lip Gloss
2022 - 4.2ml, $15,
2024 - 3.5ml, $16
↙️Shrinkage: 16%
L’Oréal Infallible Foundation
2022 - 30ml, $10.99
2024 - 28ml, $10.99
↙️Shrinkage: 6%
CoverGirl Clean Skin Milk Foundation
2022 - 30ml, $12
2024 - 28ml, $12
↙️Shrinkage: 6%
Tarte Shape Tape
2022 - 10ml, $27
2024 - 9.75ml, $32
↙️Shrinkage: .25%
Rare Beauty Liquid Touch Foundation
2023 - 1 oz, $29
2024 - .94 oz, $30
↙️Shrinkage: .06%
Armani Luminous Silk Foundation
2022 - 1oz, $69
2024 - .95oz, $69
↙️Shrinkage: .05%
🐜 Rewards for ants
Shrinkflation has even impacted rewards that can be redeemed with loyalty points:
📈 Here are some cases of beauty price hikes:
Charlotte Tillbury Hollywood Flawless Filter
2022: 1oz, $44
2024: 1oz, $49
💸Price Difference: $5
Charlotte Tillbury Airbrush Flawless Foundation
2022: 1oz, $44
2024: 1oz, $49
💸Price Difference: $5
Fenty Eaze Drops
2022: 1oz, $29.50
2024: 1oz, $36
💸Price Difference: $6.50
Lancome Juicy Tubes
2022: .5oz, $20
2024: .5oz, $25
💸Price Difference: $5
Glossier Future Dew
2022: 1 oz, $24
2024: 1 oz, $28
💸Price Difference: $4
Glossier Skin Tint
2022: 1 oz, $26
2024: 1 oz, $30
💸Price Difference: $4
Urban Decay All Nighter Setting Spray
2022: 118ml, $33
2024: 118ml, $36
💸Price Difference: $3
Rare Beauty Soft Pinch Blush
2022: .25 oz, $20
2024: .25 oz. $23
💸Price Difference: $3
Tower28 SunnyDays Tinted SPF
2022: 1 oz, $30
2024: 1 oz, $32
💸Price Difference: $2
Tower28 Milky Lip Jelly
2022: .13 oz, $14
2024: .13 oz, $16
💸Price Difference: $2
Glossier Balm Dot Com
2022: 0.5 oz, $12
2024: 0.5 oz, $14
💸Price Difference: $2
Glossier Boy Brow
2022: 0.12 oz, $22
2024: 0.12 oz, $24
💸Price Difference: $2
Glossier Milky Jelly Cleanser
2022: 6.8 oz, $20
2024: 6.8 oz, $24
💸Price Difference: $2
Patrick Ta Major Dimensions Palette
2022: $68
2024: $70
💸Price Difference: $2
🫧 The category with the biggest price hikes? Fragrance:
Kayali Sparkling Lychee:
2022: $100
2024: $138
💸Price Difference: $38
Jo Malone English Pear & Freesia:
2022: $144
2024: $165
💸Price Difference: $21
Byredo Gypsy Water:
2022: $205
2024: $225
💸Price Difference: $20
Le Labo Santal 33:
2022: $215
2024: $235
💸Price Difference: $20
Glossier You:
2022: $60
2024: $78
💸Price Difference: $18
Tom Ford Black Orchid:
2022: $150
2024: $160
💸Price Difference: $10
YSL Libre:
2022: $132
2024: $140
💸Price Difference: $8
/Sephora Subredditors noted price hikes as high as $10-$20 on Sephora's website compared to Brand websites (i.e. Kilian).
The irony is, consumer demand for luxury fragrances has not slowed since 2021, driven by #perfumetok.
📝 Brands who have openly communicated price hikes:
Interestingly, Laura Mercier is currently going back to pre-pandemic prices to test the waters and understand market response.
🪞Your Trend Touch Ups
🍓More Launches In Lip Accessories - Lanolips Lip Balm Phone Holder, Bubble Lip Balm Keychain, Starface Balm Holder, Laniege x BonBonWhims Keychain
🎰Brands Are Betting Big On Blur - Searches for ‘Blurring Foundation’ and ‘Full Coverage Foundation’ have hit an all-time high over the past 3 years, both peaking in July with impressive weekly averages of 6.2K (+192% YoY) and 10.2K (+40% YoY), respectively. This record-breaking search volume indicates an accelerated consumer demand for a full coverage look. In response, there are 679 blurring foundations now available on the US market (as of 9/14/24), marking a 32% increase from last year. The blurring trend isn't slowing down, with even more launches rolling out this month. Here are the most notable and top-rated:
ONE/SIZE Turn Up The Base Full Beat Waterproof Liquid Foundation
Makeup By Mario SurrealSkin Talc-Cree Soft Blur Setting Powder
LYS Triple Fix Blurring and Hydrating Skin Tint Foundation Stick
Prada Refine Blurring Extending Primer
👩🔬Ingredients to look out for with blurring effects: Silica, Dimethicone, Polysilicone, Trimethylsiloxysilicate, Triethoxycaprylylsilane, Acrylates Copolymer
✨Enters
🦟 Latest in product innovation:
Deon Libra - A stress care brand for the Black community, utilizing adaptogens to tackle stress.
Peter Thomas Roth Instant FirmX Collagen Bounce Sticks - Multi-use blush and bronzer sticks that blend clinical skincare with makeup.
Buzzie - Plant-based bug repellant.
The Unbraider - A brush to take down multiple braids at once.
🫧Glossier Grows It’s ‘You’ Family - You Rêve is their new fragrance launching 10/3 per PR gifting, and a Harpers Bazaar spotlight. ‘The signature Ambrox base of Glossier You gets an energizing upgrade with notes of plum butter, sandalwood, and toasted almond – perfect for the gourmand lover who prefers a subtle, skinlike scent.’ Earlier this month the brand launched their signature scent as a Dry-Touch Body Butter. Watch these go triple platinum on Gen Alpha’s Christmas lists.
💋Makeup Forever Artist Color Pencil Extreme - The new waterproof formula self sets and does not budge. Personally my new favorite brown eyeliner that does not crease in the LA heat wave (Shade: Dimensional Dark Brown).
💄Saie Lip Liner 101 - Currently sitting at 4.9/5 stars for it’s creamy formula.
📍Ilia Is Now at Ulta Beauty - The brand expands their suburban footprint, rolling out to over 500 Ulta Beauty stores by end of September. In October, they take their expansion plan global, entering more than 40 Sephora stores in the Gulf Coast region, including the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia.
🍒Sabrina Carpenter Kicks Off Redken Partnership With A Bang As Their *First* Ever Celebrity Ambassador - Kudos to the marketing team who leaned into Sabrina’s humor, and got the script approved. Unsurprisingly, the video is their most engaged and viewed social post in the past two years, across Instagram (529K Engagements, 2.5M Views) and TikTok (29K Engagements, 4.5M Views).
💸Exits
🛑Net-a-Porter is Closing It’s Beauty Division - Once a launchpad for iconic brands like Charlotte Tilbury and Dr. Barbara Sturm, Net-a-Porter will shift to an affiliate model and begin directing customers to brand sites in 2025.
🤖This week’s dupe match, according to AI
Last year, I took a Machine Learning course from MIT. For my final project, I integrated ChatGPT as a Sheets formula to identify and rank exact ingredient dupes. Now, I use it to share affordable alternatives. 🙂 This week, I use AI to analyze how closely Walgreen’s new skincare line matches up against the OGs they’re copycatting. The consensus? They are closer in packaging than they are in ingredients.
🍉Walgreens Watermelon AHA Mask vs Glow Recipe Watermelon - 24 out of 36 overlapping ingredients (66% Dupe)
🥬Walgreens Gentle Cleanser vs YTTP Kale Cleanser - 20 out of 36 overlapping ingredients (55% Dupe)
🧴Walgreens Face Cream vs Kiehls Ultra Facial Cream - 16 out of 36 overlapping ingredients (44% Dupe)
🍓Walgreens Lip Mask vs Laneige Lip Mask - 13 out of 52 overlapping ingredients (25% Dupe)
🌰Walgreens Body Butter vs Sol De Janeiro Bum Bum Cream - 10 out of 38 overlapping ingredients (25% Dupe)
Have a dupe request? LMK in the comments.